It’s not a red light, but it’s a flashing yellow light that the strongest part of the rally is probably over. There’s not as much buying power out there.

Jerome Dodson, president of Parnassus in San Francisco, $3.6b AUM, estimates the S&P 500 will climb 6-9% in 2010: Bloomberg. Bloomberg reported that cash reserves have fallen to 3.6% from 5.6% in January of 2009. It was the fastest decrease since 1991 and an equivalent proportion to September 2007. In both instances, the market rallied slightly, only to fall through the following year. In 1992, it bottomed. In 2008, it was just getting started.

you want to be wary of who’s left to do the buying. With this recovery still relatively fragile, it would not take much to set the market up for a sizable snapback.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery, $1.5b under management: Bloomberg

There’s so much money in the fixed-income market and there’s so much money in money-market instruments paying almost nothing. If that money shifts to stock funds, it’s going to be very bullish.

Mark Bronzo, Security Global Investors, $21b AUM:Bloomberg

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