The system will not reset quickly and without permanent changes. This will feel like a new normal.

–Mohamed El-Erian, in his 12 May 2009 commentary

I don’t think it’s different this time. We’ve had financial-market crises and big workforce changes before, and growth has pretty consistently come in around 2.5 percent over the past 50 to 60 years.

Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. He pegs potential growth at 2.6%.

Growth in the economy and profits is likely to accelerate. [Historically,] returns have been about 7 percent. We think they’ll likely be above that for some period.

Kevin Gardiner, head of investment strategy at Barclays Wealth in London. Bloomberg data suggests that earnings for S&P 500 companies will grow 24.9% in 2010.

The inventory cycle is a turbocharger right now. But when we talk about the ‘new normal’ growth rate, we’re talking in trends as opposed to single quarters.

–Paul McCulley, Managing Director, PIMCO, in his December 2009 outlook.

Drew Matus, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

Catching Up

The next couple of years we’ll be accelerating to catch up, and then we delve into the new-normal environment…When people talk about the new normal, they’re not talking about 2010 or 2011, they’re talking 2013 and beyond

Drew Matus, a senior economist at BofA Merrill Lynch, providing a half-way point between an unbridled resumption of growth and El-Erian’s ‘new normal.’ He anticipates potential growth of 2.25%.

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