the good news is also the bad news. The economy is hitting bottom, but it’s a long, uphill climb to get out.
Alan Blinder, 23 July 2009

Since the late 19th century, there have been 255 recessions in western economies. Of these, 164 have lasted just one year and only 32 have lasted for more than two years. In other words, two-thirds of recessions last a single year, and only one in eight lasts more than two years. If we strip out the peculiar circumstances at the end of the two world wars, 70 per cent of all recessions last just one year.
—Paul Ormerod, 27 July 2009: FT

Advertisements