It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on.
—Amos Tversky
There are few things as risky as the widespread belief that there’s no risk, because it’s only when investors are suitably risk-averse that prospective returns will incorporate appropriate risk premiums.
… a speculator is one who runs risks of which he is aware and an investor is one who runs risks of which he is unaware.
—John Maynard Keynes
Some of the worst business decisions I’ve ever seen are those with future projections and discounts back. It seems like the higher mathematics with more false precision should help you, but it doesn’t. They teach that in business schools because, well, they’ve got to do something.
—Charlie Munger
Media General
Media General has implemented many difficult but necessary expense reductions that strengthen our ability to weather the deep recession and recognize the reduced revenue streams available in our business. As a result, we are in a stronger position to take advantage of an economic recovery. We saw the rate of classified advertising declines abate somewhat in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2009, mostly in the automotive category, and particularly in our Florida, Virginia and Alabama markets. The decline in retail advertising in the current period was also less severe than in the first quarter of 2009.
Under the new structure, our leaders are responsible for the success of all of our media properties within a defined market area, not just a particular media platform…without allegiance to a particular media platform.
—Marshall Morton, CEO Media General
New York Times
“We’re seeing a loosening up of some of the ad budgets that were very much rock solidly closed in first half of the year.”
—NYT on 2Q09 Earnings call
We are undertaking quantitative and qualitative research as to how many of our readers would be willing to pay for online content, and how much they would pay. At this time, our work is centered on a metered model and a Times membership model with special offerings.
—Janet Robinson, CEO, NYT
While we continued to experience a very difficult economic climate in the quarter as well as secular changes affecting the entire media industry, we made significant progress in decreasing our cost base and reducing and restructuring our debt. Advertising revenues decreased across all major categories although the rate of decline lessened throughout the quarter. As we continue our transition from a company focused primarily on print to one that is increasingly digital in focus and multiplatform in delivery, online advertising revenues are a more important part of our mix. They made up 21 percent of our ad revenues in the quarter, up from 18 percent in the same period a year ago.
Circulation revenues increased 1.5 percent as a result of higher newsstand and subscription prices for The Times, The Boston Globe and some of our regional newspapers. We believe this shows the value our newspapers provide day in, day out to our readers.
Based on what we have seen so far in July, we expect the advertising environment to continue to be challenging. We believe the rate of decline will moderate slightly in the third quarter from what we experienced in the second quarter.
—Janet Robinson, president and CEO, NYT
Newsprint expense declined 24.5 percent, with 22.8 percent from lower consumption and 1.7 percent from lower pricing
There is a real danger this is going to be a double dip and that after six months or so we’ll have some more bad news. We could slide down again in the fourth quarter.
–Martin Feldstein on the double dip
And now, reaching for number two on the College Campus Bestseller List
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
by Jane Austen and Seth Grahame-Smith
What is it with zombies?!
]
—Foreclosures up 15% YoY, 1H09 v 1H08
—New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut foreclosure rates for 1H09: .3%, .68% and .61%
—National Foreclosure rate, 1H09: 1.19%
—Total filings in Q2, up 20%, YoY
—Foreclosure filing declines in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, 2Q09 v 2Q08: -14.7%, -27.5%, & -38.7%, respectively
—Foreclosure filing increased in New York & New Jersey, Q2 v Q1: 24% and 6.9%
