The world began without the human race and will certainly end without it. What else has man done except blithely break down billions of structures and reduce them to a state in which they are no longer capable of integration?

—Claude Levi-Strauss, writing in 1955 in Tristes Tropiques. He died this week at age 100, just short of his 101st birthday.

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men’s minds without their being aware of the fact.

Such is how I view myself: a traveler, an archeologist of space, trying in vain to restore the exotic with the use of particles and fragments

Levi-Strauss

Western civilization now feels threatened in its turn. It has, in the past, destroyed innumerable cultures in whose diversity lay the wealth of humankind. Guardian of its own fraction of this collective wealth, weakened by dangers from without and within, it is allowing itself to forget of destroy its own heritage, which —as much as any other— deserves to be cherished and respected.

—Levi-Strauss in the NYRB

The graveyard of finance contains those who were right too soon.
Martin Wolf on Andrew Smithersnew book and the vicissitudes of imperfectly efficient markets

We always talk about homeownership as being the American dream, but during the last decade people forgot it’s shelter and started thinking of it as a fast way to make or lose money. The quicker we move back to seeing real estate as a place to live, a place to put down roots, the quicker the housing recovery will strengthen.

Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies

It will be a long time before people think of owning a home as a good investment again. A lot of what drives housing is psychological, and right now there’s a distinct lack of confidence in real estate.

John Vogel, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College

If you buy a home in Beverly Hills or an apartment on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, over the next five and even 10 years you are going to do very well. The greatest threat to price growth in the New York area would be the diminution of Manhattan as a trading capital, and I don’t see that happening. It’s not just a question of sales and inventory — price growth also is based on population patterns, income growth and employment.

Steve Blitz, president of Pangea Market Advisory

After every major bust there is a rethinking of that asset class.  I think people will change their views about real estate and begin to look at it as a long-term investment that provides shelter, rather than a way to make a quick buck.

Joe Carson, head of global economic research at AllianceBernstein

The nightmare scenario for the Fed would be to see them try to sell their mortgage portfolio, and Congress steps in and tries to stop it on the grounds that the housing market hasn’t fully recovered. The attempts to influence the Fed in the exit strategy will be pretty strong.

Ethan Harris, head of North American Economics at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

There is a question whether the housing market can survive when the fiscal props are pulled out.

Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight

When the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgages, is there private capital to substitute? At the moment, it is not certain.

Laurence Fink, BlackRock, in an interview with the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf broadcast on Bloomberg Television Oct. 28

Stimulus spending probably doesn’t pay for itself, but its true cost, even in a narrow fiscal sense, is only a fraction of the headline number.

Krugman

Ahhh…November

To appreciate the impact Demand is poised to have on the Web, imagine a classroom where one kid raises his hand after every question and screams out the answer. He may not be smart or even right, but he makes it difficult to hear anybody else.

Wired Magazine

The hypothesis does not claim that the market price is always right. On the contrary, it implies that the prices in the market are mostly wrong, but at any given moment it is not at all easy to say whether they are too high or too low. The fact that the best and brightest on Wall Street made so many mistakes shows how hard it is to beat the market.

Jeremy Siegel on the Efficient Market Hypothesis

There are always a large number of skeptics saying it’s going to be different this time, that future growth is not going to be as strong, that earnings aren’t going to be as strong. This is a very typical reaction, and it’s what prolongs a market rally coming out of recession.

Timothy Ghriskey, CIO, Solaris Asset Management

The market’s going to be wary of paying too high a multiple for earnings growth. The market’s in a show-me mode.

Leo Grohowski, CIO at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, $151 billion AUM

The lightning-rod of government regulation always draws a spark. The question of net-neutrality has predictably drawn fierce response and invoked the typical bromides of the sin of government interference in the garden of the free market. Orrin Hatch and James Demint contributed their views this morning in the WSJ, and though their age and demeanor may make them appear to be among the less likely users of the internet, they have a clear sense of what any government role in the internet might do – destroy the very vitality and swagger that has characterized its growth to date.

Hatch and Demint’s argument goes something like this. Because the internet has thrived over the past ten years “without a Washington politician or bureaucrat moving a muscle,” they should stand aside and allow communications networks to prioritize traffic as they are able and as is profitable. What’s more, the government doesn’t know the first thing about the internet, so if we let them interfere now, we would find ourselves “dog-paddling” in an internet backwater rather than “surfing” the broadband revolution. Rules on net neutrality would mean just that – a dramatic change that would endanger the innovation and growth we have seen to date; therefore, stand aside and let the market decide.

There are several problems with their argument. First, the origin story of the web. Hatch and Demint would have us believe that the web came to be through the agile footing of corporations organized to profit by way of a new market opportunity – the web. The web as we know it emerged not only outside of government action, but in spite of it.

But is that really the case? Let’s not forget that the internet began as a government project, and it was through investments dating back to the ARPAnet in the ’60s that created the ancestors to the world wide web. Tim Berners-Lee, the acknowledged inventor of the World Wide Web, invented it at CERN, a government sponsored research facility. The current broadband revolution may have emerged through private investment, but it was on the back of a government sponsored foundation.

Hatch and Demint are correct to consider the significance of the broadband revolution. We’ve seen a remarkable efflorescence of businesses and services over the past ten years, and the internet has become a vital source of commerce and innovation. Hatch and Demint want to do everything they can to avoid upsetting the apple cart, and they fear that government regulation to introduce net neutrality would do just that.

Net neutrality, however, is not a new idea. It’s not even a new condition. The broadband revolution came into being with each packet having equal access to the network. ISPs made noises about prioritizing traffic and discriminating against third parties, but no one did. The FCC, therefore, isn’t considering new regulation that would change the competitive environment. They’re considering regulation that would keep in place the same competitive environment that cultivated the broadband revolution. Far from running against the tide, as Hatch and Demint have argued, the FCC is considering how to maintain the status quo.

But bandwidth is finite, argue Hatch and Demint, and network neutrality will eliminate the ability to yield a return on their investments. They claim, if a network provider is going to “invest billions of private dollars in new and improved networks, they should rightly expect to set prices and manage those networks as they see fit.” First, wouldn’t one expect the market to set the price, not the provider. When a provider sets the price, those are usually monopoly conditions. Second, these investments are not new. Network providers have made record investments since the 1996 Telecommunications Act, and net neutrality doesn’t seem to have stopped them from making money. Indeed, I pay far more for my cable bill today than I could ever have dreamed in 2000.

Hatch and Demint have argued for a radical reshaping of the underlying conditions that brought us this broadband-bounty. They want to abandon net neutrality, so we can avoid the specter of “hearings and mark up meetings and regulatory comment periods,” but it also means abandoning the competitive environment that has brought about the broadband revolution. Would that not make Hatch and Demint’s argument one for a dramatic change that would endanger the innovation and growth we have seen to date? We know that the network providers are profitable, so it’s not an issue of lacking returns on investment. Is that a risk we are willing to take?

It’s rather unusual that the option market pays so much premium without extreme changes in exchange rates. The market is getting nervous.

Harald Hild, a portfolio manager at Quaesta Capital Optivest AG in Switzerland

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