Stilltitled

Weather.com co-opts the rhetoric of homeland security and latent fears of terrorism to describe the gathering weather system on the east coast

“The Middle East has oil, and China has rare earths.”

—Deng Xiaoping, 1992, in pink marble: via Bloomberg, etc

Home prices crept forward in July. Ten of the 20 cities saw year-over-year gains and only one – Las Vegas – made a new bottom, as the impact of the first time home buyer program continued to fade away. The year-over-year growth rates for 16 of the cities and both Composites weakened in July compared to June. While we could still see some residual support from the home-buyers’ tax credit, which covers purchases closing through September 30th, anyone looking for home price to return to the lofty 2005-2006 might be disappointed. Judging from the recent behavior of the housing market, stable prices seem more likely. In the monthly data, 12 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites were up in July over June; but the monthly rates also seem to be weakening. The next few months may give us an idea of the true strength of the housing market, as the temporary economic stimuli will have ended. Housing starts, sales and inventory data reported for August do not show signs of a robust market, and foreclosures continue.

—David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s: via S&P

The big happening in housing markets right now is the decline in buyer demand and stagnating supply. A huge portion of potential demand can’t afford a home or get a loan.

—Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, remarking on general housing data and observing a phenomenon that could easily be mistaken for seasonality: via Bloomberg

The housing market continues to face significant headwinds from high unemployment and foreclosures, which are impeding a broader recovery, and recent net order trends in the homebuilding industry have injected additional caution into our near-term outlook

—Jeffrey Metzger, CEO, KB Home: : via Bloomberg

Results during the spring months have clearly benefited from demand created by the since expired homebuyer tax credit. Also contributing to recent firmer results is that seasonally the spring/early summer months are the most vibrant for the housing market… Therefore, looking ahead, the demand air-pocket caused by the end of the tax credit will combine with seasonally slower activity, which will create a downside double-whammy for prices.

—Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc: via WSJ

Philosophers have often looked for the defining feature of humans — language, rationality, culture and so on. I’d stick with this: Man is the only animal that likes Tabasco sauce.

—Paul Bloom, psychologist at Yale, from his book, How Pleasure Works: The New Science of Why We Like What We Like: via NYT

the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

—NBER, announcing the June 2009 end of the recession. Any subsequent downturn “would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.” The trough in payroll employment occurred six months later, though far more rapidly than the 2001-03 recession, which bottomed twenty-one months after NBER determined a trough. Via NBER

It’s definitely the worst apart from the Depression, which was far, far worse. It’s still too early to tote up the cost, given that we are still far from recovered from its effects.

—Robert Hall, head of the business cycle dating committee at NBER: via Bloomberg

You need not go farther than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. ‘About 11 p.m. customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items — baby formula, milk, bread, eggs — and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight when government electronic benefits cards get activated, and then the checkout starts.

—William Simon, President and CEO of Wal-Mart: via Bloomberg

This financial crisis has made us all too aware that we live in a Catch-22 world: the performance of the housing market drives the economy, and the performance of the economy drives the housing market. But housing has perhaps never been a better bargain, and sooner or later buyers will regain faith, inventories will shrink to reasonable levels, prices will rise and we’ll even start building again. The American dream is not dead — it’s just taking a well-deserved rest.

—Karl Case, following the most recent Case-Shiller data: via NYT

The monthly Composites cover June and the national index covers the second quarter, when the government’s program for first time home-buyers was winding down. While the numbers are upbeat, other more recent data on home sales and mortgages point to fewer gains ahead. Even with concerns about near term developments, we recognize that the housing market is in better shape than this time last year. Further, California’s cities have moved from some of the hardest hit to three of the four leading cities based on year-over-year gains. Among the other hard hit cities, the news is also a bit encouraging – Las Vegas, however, remains among the weaker cities. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw home prices increase in June over May – Las Vegas was down 0.6%, Phoenix and Seattle were both flat. Through the second quarter, 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have positive annual growth rates, and no market is registering a doubledigit decline. The worry starts when you remember that the Homebuyers’ Tax Credit has expired, foreclosures are still at high levels, and July data on home sales and starts were very, very weak. The inventory of unsold homes and months’ supply data were particularly troubling. If this relative weakness in demand continues, it will likely filter through to home prices in coming months.

—David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, balancing a strong report with caution about expiring tax-credits, foreclosures, July home sales and inventory: via S&P

During WWI, we called sauerkraut liberty cabbage. Dachsunds were liberty pups. Without irony, we called french fries freedom fries in 2003, on the invasion of Iraq.