One thing seems probable to me. The U.S. will lose its status as the superpower of the global financial system.

—Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister.

Given the burden of debt that has accumulated, it’s hard to see the U.S. economy growing as fast as it did over the past few decades. There is a profound mood shift occurring.

—Niall Ferguson

They know its ability to turn around problems is really unmatched, historically. At the same time, they ask themselves, Will the United States get at some of the root causes that could determine its real strength over the next 10 or 20 or 30 years?

—Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank, speaking of a prominent Chinese economist’s view on the US.

If you told me we were spending like crazy to build schools and send everyone to college, that would have infinitely different implications than borrowing like crazy to finance current consumption.

—Christina Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley.

The political system does not deal well with gradual, long-term problems. It deals with crises, often imperfectly, but it does deal with them. The current experience makes the case.

—Peter Orszag, the director of the Congressional Budget Office

This morning I am casting that convention aside. I speak for all of us when I say that the Federal Reserve will continue to explore every avenue and consider every option to see the credit markets through the credit crisis…We can and we will restore order to the credit markets.

Richard Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, at an International Institute of Finance conference.

The excesses of financial entrepreneurship have been abetted by a kind of ”hollowing out” of the financial regulatory system.

…This regulatory fragmentation, and the loopholes it provides, has not been lost on Wall Street. The leading securities houses have all sought to increase their financial leverage by forming elaborate holding companies. To this end, they use creative, though permissible, accounting techniques to hide from public view their gross asset and liability structures.

…Under such a stiffened regulatory approach, Wall Street firms would probably be confronted with more stringent capital requirements and closer supervision of all the activities under their holding companies. With the loss of much of their franchise, the number and size of securities firms will eventually shrink.

In the more concentrated U.S. financial structure of tomorrow, conflicts of interest will flourish. This will invite governmental intrusion, less innovation and, ultimately, a more inefficient allocation of capital.

Henry Kaufman: Gloom at the Stock Exchange 

A Power That May Not Stay So Super
By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: October 12, 2008
Britain overreached imperially. The U.S. has been doing it financially.
[Source for Uncited Quotes]

This is the opportunity of a lifetime. The most important securities are being given away
Marty Whitman

If you were presented today with all this data about the economy, but deprived of any knowledge of the crash, you would never be able to detect that something terrible had happened to the stock market in October.

Robert M. Solow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the 1987 Nobel laureate in Economic Science.

the Administration desired the crisis…it arises in large part from a one-time ”revolution” – slashing revenues to decimate the welfare state – which got us where we are today. But these transient events are not likely to be repeated. Not, that is, if we will just grasp what they were, and state the problem properly.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan

The last depression was an international phenomenon. There was a long time after the stock market event in 1929 before the economy crashed.

The fact that this has happened may help that process of international cooperation and the changes in domestic policy that are crucially needed to correct the situation.

It’s ironic that all the trumpeting now of these protections stemming from 1929 is being done by the same sources that have been trying to get rid of them and remove all inhibitions on the free markets

Paul Volcker

The Uncertain Legacy of the Crash
By LOUIS UCHITELLE
Published: April 3, 1988
LEAD: NEARLY six months after Oct. 19, it is remarkably difficult to gauge the impact of the stock market crash. The nations economy survives and grows. The terrible recession that collapsing stock prices seemed to promise has not materialized. And the riveting fears of late October have dissipated.

How Reagan Created the Crash By DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN [DEMOCRAT-NY]
MEMBER OF THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE.
Published: November 1, 1987
LEAD: Start with the French theologian Georges Bernanos: The worst, the most corrupting lies are problems poorly stated.

Discarding the Frame

I have of late — but wherefore I know not — lost all my mirth, foregone all custom of exercises; and indeed, it goes so heavily with my disposition that this goodly frame the earth seems to me a sterile promontory; this most excellent canopy, the air, look you, this brave o’erhanging firmanent, this majestic roof fretted with golden fire — why it appeareth nothing to me but a foul and pestilent congregation of vapors. What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and in moving how express and admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god: the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals! And yet to me what is this quintessence of dust?

The G7 statement issued following conclusion of their gathering.

We see the need — a clear, present need — to raise capital. We’re going to do it as soon as we can do it and do it properly and do it effectively and right…Trust me, we are not wasting time; people are working around the clock to deal with this…We’ll have some volatility for a while. We need to restore confidence.

—Paulson statement

The overall goal of the program will be to contribute greater stability and liquidity in the mortgage market, which should enhance consumers’ access to mortgage financing and ultimately result in reduced mortgage interest rates

—James Lockhart on the Fannie / Freddie mandate (9 Sept)

We have seen the worst excesses in credit markets history. Let the competent banks take over the incompetent banks. Everybody starts over.

Jim Rogers

Bullish signs

Sellers of credit-default protection on bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will have to pay holders 91.375 cents on the dollar, setting up the biggest-ever payout in the $55 trillion market.

The ISDA organized auction on creditfixings.com set a value of 8.625 cents on the dollar for the debt.

BNP estimates payments of more than $270b, as a result

The market for the bonds had implied a recovery rate of 13 cents on the dollar, which would be a 33% difference or 4.75 cents on the dollar.

There are more than 350 counterparties involved.

“[The payments] are insignificant when put into the context of the trillions of dollars of payments that are made through settlement systems each and every day”

—Robert Pickel, head of the ISDA

[The stock market is a] billion-person game in which people are trying to figure out what everybody else is expecting and therefore how everybody else will behave.

[What we are seeing is a] psychological rather than an economic phenomenon

I’m not altogether confident that the people in charge know what they are doing. But they sure are trying hard.

It’s crucial that people believe that help is on the way and solutions are possible. If everybody thinks the stock market is going to crash, they behave in a way that makes it crash.

Thomas Schelling

DJIA Fundamentals, as of 30 September 2008 — 10,850.66

  • TTM P/E: 15.68
  • TTM Dividend Yield: 2.96
  • TTM Price / Cash Flow: 7.64

What’s the DJIA down Month To Date?

  • 15%?
    • TTM P/E: 13.3
    • TTM Dividend Yield: 3.5
    • TTM Price / Cash Flow: 6.5

S&P Fundamentals, as of 30 September 2008 — Price: 1166.36

  • Estimated TTM P/E: 20.83 – (bottom up, operating earnings)
  • Estimated TTM P/E: 16.14 – (top down, as reported)
  • TTM Dividend Yield: 2.47

What’s the S&P down Month To Date?

  • 25%?
    • TTM P/E – bottom up: 15.6
    • TTM P/E – top down: 12.1
    • TTM Dividend Yield: 3.3
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