Stilltitled

Coming Two weeks

• FOMC meets Wednesday, and the market has priced in a 50 basis point ease. That they will reference the sad state of affairs goes without saying
• Treasury will announce refunding for November, during which they will also seek new sales and provide guidance on raising new funds.
• The Election will be settled (hopefully) on November 4th.
• Economic data: consumer confidence, durable goods, Q3 GDP, Chicago PMI, Personal Income annd Spending, ISM

                         Bloomberg Survey



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                        Release    Period    Prior     Median

Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast

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New Home Sales ,000's    10/27     Sept.      460       450

New Home Sales MOM%      10/27     Sept.     -11.5%    -2.2%

Case Shiller Monthly YO  10/28      Aug.     -16.4%    -16.6%

Case Shiller Monthly In  10/28      Aug.     166.2     165.0

Consumer Conf Index      10/28      Oct.      59.8      52.0

Durables Orders MOM%     10/29     Sept.     -4.8%     -1.2%

Durables Ex-Trans MOM%   10/29     Sept.     -3.3%     -1.5%

GDP Annual QOQ%          10/30      3Q A      2.8%     -0.5%

Personal Consump. QOQ%   10/30      3Q A      1.2%     -2.4%

GDP Prices QOQ%          10/30      3Q A      1.1%      4.0%

Core PCE Prices QOQ%     10/30      3Q A      2.2%      2.5%

Initial Claims ,000's    10/30    Oct. 25     478       475

Cont. Claims ,000's      10/30    Oct. 18     3720      3720

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As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue

—Alan Greenspan

In a fairly Darwinian manner, many hedge funds will simply disappear

—Emmanuel Roman, co-chief executive officer at GLG Partners

There is now no safe haven globally other than a deeply indebted U.S. government. The events of the last few days are categorical evidence of the globalization of the credit crunch and its subsequent problems.

—Jim Reid, head of fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London.

We’ve reached a situation of sheer panic. There will be massive dumping of assets…hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust. Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger. We’re seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds…don’t be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days.

Things are getting very ugly also in the emerging markets. We used to say when the U.S. catches a cold, the rest of the world sneezes. Well, the U.S. now has chronic and persistent pneumonia. It’s becoming a mess in emerging markets. There are about a dozen emerging markets that are now in severe financial trouble. Even a small country can have a systemic effect on the global economy. There is not going to be enough IMF money to support them.

—Nouriel Roubini