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For most newspapers in the United states, we would not buy them at any price. They have the possibility of going to just unending losses.
—Warren Buffett
It’s really a national tragedy. These monopoly daily newspapers have been an important sinew to our civilization, they kept government more honest than they would otherwise be.
—Charlie Munger
:WSJ – Marketbeat
We’re shedding jobs in industries in a significant way, and we’re not going to see those same industries be the source of job creation. We’re going to be living in a world in which we’re going to be feeling that the normal on the unemployment rate is above 6 percent.
—Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co
People tend to think that when you come out of a recession you get the labor market you had when you entered it. This time you may get something quite different.
—Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington
People losing their jobs now in permanently downsizing industries have to be aware that they’re particularly at risk of pretty large losses [to lifetime wages]
—Till von Wachter, Columbia University, in a briefing to the Fed and the European Central Bank last month
Bloomberg Survey ================================================================ Release Period Prior Median Indicator Date Value Forecast ================================================================ Construct Spending MOM% 5/4 March -0.9% -1.6% Pending Homes MOM% 5/4 March 2.1% 0.0% ISM NonManu Index 5/5 April 40.8 42.0 Initial Claims ,000’s 5/7 2-May 631 635 Cont. Claims ,000’s 5/7 25-Apr 6271 6350 Productivity QOQ% 5/7 4Q -0.4% 0.8% Labor Costs QOQ% 5/7 4Q P 5.7% 2.8% Cons. Credit $ Blns 5/7 March -7.5 -4.5 Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 5/8 April -663 -600 Unemploy Rate % 5/8 April 8.5% 8.9% Manu Payrolls ,000’s 5/8 April -161 -157 Hourly Earnings MOM% 5/8 April 0.2% 0.2% Hourly Earnings YOY% 5/8 April 3.4% 3.3% Avg Weekly Hours 5/8 April 33.2 33.2 Whlsale Inv. MOM% 5/8 March -1.5% -1.0% ================================================================
David Brooks interprets genius through the availability heuristic
For the last 200 years, despite occasional shocks, the western world has been dominated by a belief in progress, based on its extraordinary scientific and entrepreneurial achievements. On a broader perspective, this optimism is a grave anomaly.
It is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic. The biggest question right now is this: How severe will the pandemic be? All countries should immediately now activate their pandemic plans.
—Margaret Chan, WHO director-general
The economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower. Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth and tight credit.
—Fed Open Market Committee
I’m actually very enthusiastic about housing, and I haven’t said that in five years. We’re within shouting distance of a bottom.
I do not think there are grounds for great optimism. It is going to take a while, I think, to have a strong recovery.
There’s a visible commitment by the government to support these so-called systemically important institutions at this point, so they’re not going to go under in the sense of ceasing operations or even interrupting operations. It’s a question of how much support they’re going to need.
How quickly we deal with the system that is, as I say, still in intensive care, is the question.
The Federal Reserve is going beyond the traditional role of central banks here or abroad. At some point it’s reasonable to ask should this particular institution, with its independence very well protected, be allocating so much of what is essentially government money.
The inflation problem, which should be a real threat for the future, is not right on the doorstep. But two or three years from now that may be the critical problem, how that’s handled. Because, given what the Federal Reserve has been doing, it’s going to be harder to retrace their steps, so to speak, than it ordinarily would be.
Institutional growth and the allocation to hedge funds will be significant [in 2009]. Pension plans, both public and private, need to take risk. People will start putting money into hedge funds in the fourth quarter.
—Stephen Nesbitt, CEO of pension fund adviser Cliffwater
There is a very widespread sense that the US “needs” China more now because it is issuing more Treasuries to finance its fiscal deficit.
That isn’t quite true.
Stilltitled 