Category Archive

Evidence that the housing market is at or near bottom is strengthening. The housing market will remain exceptionally weak this year, although the freefall has ended.
—Celia Chen, Moody’s Economy.com

At this point, people are thinking the fall is over. The market is predicting the declines are over…My guess would be that home prices are going to level off — they’re not going to keep falling…At this rate, it’ll be down 12 percent and I suspect it will be down less than that because of the improvement that we’re seeing [by year-end] … [but] I am not optimistic that we’re going to see any sharp rebound.
—Robert Shiller

These numbers are really showing that there’s been a change in mood. For these numbers to go up in eight states, I was quite taken aback.
—Karl Case

—Case Shiller Declines 18.1%, YoY, less than the estimated 18.6% and less than last month’s 18.7%
—13 of 22 markets slowed their YoY decline, vs 10 of 22 last month
—21 of 22 markets slowed their MoM decline or grew, vs 11 of 22 last month
—8 of 22 markets showed MoM growth, vs 3 last month
—Phoenix and Las Vegas continue to lead the overall declines, with 54% and 52%, respectively
—Dallas and Cleveland showed MoM growth of 2% and 1%, respectively, though Cleveland’s CAGR from 2000 remains negative.

While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions.
—David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee

I’m very concerned about the rise in delinquent mortgages and foreclosure actions. [President Barack Obama’s plan to create] sustainable, payment- reducing modifications is a positive step that should show significant benefits in the coming months.
—John Dugan, Comptroller of the Currency said in a statement released with the quarterly report that showed delinquencies double on prime mortgages from 1.1% in March 2008 to 2.9% in March 2009. Delinquencies went from 250,986 in March 2008 to 661,914 in March 2009

a newspaper is an advisor who does not require to be sought, but who comes of his own accord, and talks to you briefly of the common weal, without distracting you from your private affairs.
—de Tocqueville, from Democracy in America, Chapter Six

These whiffs of optimism we’re getting are well founded. We’ve priced in the normal exit of a bad recession. In the U.S., there could be a new dawn of profitability.
—James Swanson, chief investment strategist, MFS, with $134b AUM

Historically, recessions have been a time when new companies, like Microsoft, get born, and good companies separate themselves from their competition. It makes sense. When times are tight, people look for new, less expensive ways to do old things. Necessity breeds invention.

—Thomas Friedman

To avoid the inherent deficiencies of using sovereign currencies for reserves, there’s a need to create an international reserve currency that’s delinked from sovereign nations…Special drawing rights of the IMF should be given full play, and the international body should manage part of its members’ reserves…The excessive reliance on the credit of several sovereign currencies have added to the extent of risks and crises. A currency with stable value in the long term is required.
—PBOC via Bloomberg

In California and the West and, really, a lot of the country, we have to be ready for more waves of foreclosures coming through for at least the next year. And no one really knows how big those waves are going to be.
—Andrew LePage, an analyst with MDA DataQuick

Folger Library reveals lost secrets

Zombie hordes and liberal thought.

Next Wednesday we start a fiscal year with a massively unbalanced spending plan and a cash shortfall not seen since the Great Depression. The State’s $2.8 billion cash shortage in July grows to $6.5 billion in September, and after that we see a double-digit freefall. Unfortunately, the State’s inability to balance its checkbook will now mean short-changing taxpayers, local governments and small businesses.
—John Chiang, California State Controller.

In 1992, Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, issued the i.o.u.’s to state workers; the workers immediately brought a lawsuit, contending that the i.o.u.’s violated the federal Fair Labor Standards Act. A federal judge approved a $558 million settlement, and some workers received additional vacation time.
—NYT