We’re entering literally a vicious circle where economies are spinning down, financial markets are spinning lower, and the policy makers in my view — and that’s my biggest fear — have lost control of what’s going on in financial markets. If we don’t do that fiscal stimulus today, three months from now, six months from now the collapse of the real economy is going to be so severe that anything we’re doing today to recapitalize the financial system is going to be undone

—Nouriel Roubini

Case Shiller Index Reports 16.6% year over year home price declines in August for the Composite 20

  • From all-time-highs
    • Composite 10 is down 22%, and was down 20% as of May 2008
      • Declines persist in PHXR, LXXR, SDXR, SFXR, and MIXR
    • Composite 20 is down 20%, as of August 2008
  • MoM: NY Metro reads -.2% and the composite 10 reads -1%
  • NY Metro came in higher than futures for August in September
  • YoY: NY Metro is down 7%, vs -16.6% for the Composite 20 and 17.7% for the Composite 10
  • Last trade on November 2008 futures is up .5% from 10/24

And, earlier this week…

  • Foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 265,968 properties in September, a 12 percent decrease from the previous month but still a 21 percent increase from September 2007. One in every 475 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in September.
  • Foreclosure filings were reported on 765,558 U.S. properties during the third quarter, up more than 3 percent from the second quarter and up 71 percent from the third quarter of 2007.
  • New Jersey Foreclosures –

    • Monthly Data – September: outpaced the national average, with a 48% YoY increaase and an 18% MoM increase. It would appear that foreclosures started late and now are growing just above pace with the national average, month over month
    • Quarterly Data
      • 3Q over 2Q: 3.5% increase
      • 3Q08 over 3Q07: 95% increase, which could be attributed to a slower start in New Jersey and the East Coast
      • Majority of filings in Lis Pedens for Q3 (11873 out of 17893)
    • Zero notices of Default
    • Essex county is heavily influenced by a higher rate in Newark
      • 38th in the country, with 5000+ filings, on a quarterly basis

—RealtyTrac – 24 October